KALHI Markets Discoverer

KALHI Markets Discoverer is a journal for the numbers you put on your own guesses.

You already forecast constantly — whether the delivery arrives Friday, whether the deal closes, whether the queue is worth joining. You just never write the percentage down, so you never learn whether your confidence means anything. This app fixes that: file the claim with a date and a number, judge it when the date lands, and the curve tells you where you flatter yourself.

WHAT YOU GET • Warm-up — three quick questions on the way in, answered blind, that give you a first mark to be measured against • The board — every open call with its number, its due date and how long is left • Filing a call — a claim written so it can be settled, a probability set on a caliper slider, the reason you believe it, and tags to group calls by area of your life • Evidence — photograph or attach the source you based a call on, so later you can check what you actually knew at the time • Resolve — when the date lands the call comes to the bench and you rule on it, yes or no, with no wriggling • Calibration plate — your calls bucketed by stated confidence against how often you were actually right, drawn against the perfect line • Brier score — one number for accuracy, with the decomposition that shows whether your problem is calibration or resolution • Drift — whether you are running overconfident or underconfident, and whether that is getting better • Digest — a periodic reckoning of what you filed, what settled and what it says about you • Archive — every resolved call, searchable, with the reasoning you gave at the time still attached • Streak — days you kept the bench honest

Fully offline. No account, no sync, no server, no subscription. Nothing you write ever leaves the device.

Uncomfortable by design: most people find they are running six to fifteen points overconfident, and the only way to see it is to write the number down first.