Calibrate: Forecast Journal

Are your predictions any good? Log what you expect with a probability, resolve it on the due date, and let your Brier score and calibration curve show the truth.

Calibrate is a forecasting journal for anyone who wants to make better decisions. Instead of trusting your gut, you write down what you think will happen, how confident you are, and when you'll know — then let the math tell you how good your judgment really is.

Inspired by superforecasting and the rationality community.

MAKE A PREDICTION Write a clear question, set your probability from 1% to 99%, and pick a resolution date. Add notes and categories to keep things organized.

RESOLVE IT HONESTLY When a prediction comes due, mark it true or false (or void it if the question no longer applies). Calibrate keeps you honest by separating what you predicted from what actually happened.

SEE YOUR BRIER SCORE Your Brier score measures how accurate and well-calibrated your forecasts are — lower is better. Track it over time and watch it improve as you practice.

READ YOUR CALIBRATION CURVE The calibration curve shows whether your 70% really happens about 70% of the time. Discover if you are overconfident or underconfident, and by how much.

STAY ON TOP OF WHAT'S DUE Open, due, and resolved views make it easy to see what needs resolving and review your track record.

PRIVATE AND OFFLINE No sign-in, no ads, no tracking, no network access. Everything stays on your device.

One simple purchase. No subscriptions.