Deviate

A quantitative analyst in your pocket. The Deviate model scans sports prediction markets 24/7 and notifies you whenever there is edge in a game, series, or event.

Gone are the days of spending tons of time searching through prediction markets for small mispricings or opportunities. You now have Deviate. Deviate is a handheld model that scans sports prediction markets 24/7 and notifies you whenever there is edge in a game, series, or event. It computes probability from historical game data, compares it against what prediction markets are pricing right now, and alerts you when the two pull apart to help you identify positive expected value opportunities.

HOW IT WORKS The model reads the game state: score, server, inning, possession, time remaining. Every state maps to a win probability computed from historical outcomes in comparable situations. Market prices update continuously. So does the model. When the gap passes the threshold you set, you get a notification. You get both numbers, the size of the gap, and a plain-English explanation of why it fired. What you do with it is your call.

WHY THE TWO NUMBERS DISAGREE Markets price things a raw historical lookup doesn't. If a favorite drops a set, the price already reflects that this is a favorite. That's why some "the numbers say" content is quietly wrong. Deviate's models are state-conditional and validated against real outcomes before they ship. The baseball model runs on decades of play-by-play data. Each one is checked against empirical frequencies.

WHAT'S IN THE APP The edge page shows every alert that's currently open, with the model number, the market number, and the reasoning behind it. Live shows every market Deviate is tracking, with current prices and volume. History is the full record of every alert that has resolved, wins and losses both. Settings is where you pick your sports, set your minimum edge, and cap how many alerts you're willing to get in a day. In the account section, you can manage your subscription and cancel anytime.

PUBLIC TRACK RECORD Every alert is timestamped when it's sent, not scored after the fact. Wins and losses. You can open the history and read the whole thing before you pay for anything.

BUILT TO BE USEFUL Deviate is a pager, not a feed. Pick your sports, set your minimum edge, cap your alerts per day, and close the app. It only alerts you when something is actually there.

PRICING Two weeks free, then $9.99/month. Cancel any time in your Apple ID settings.

DISCLAIMER Deviate is not affiliated with or endorsed by any exchange. Deviate does not facilitate or allow any type of event-based trading on its platform. Deviate does not provide any outstanding recommendations or absolute suggestions for event-based contracts. The app simply displays mispricings based on an in-house built model. All trading occurs on third-party platforms if the user decides to trade based on model-provided analytics. Trading event contracts involve the risk of loss. Past performances do not indicate future results.

Terms of Use (EULA): https://www.apple.com/legal/internet-services/itunes/dev/stdeula/