CUP Pass Live

54 teams, four leagues and thousands of possible tournament paths. Explore title, promotion, relegation and play-off chances for Nations 26/27.

How likely is your team to win its group, earn promotion or reach the Final Four?

CUP Pass Live turns the 2026/27 Nations League into an accessible probability model. It simulates the complete competition for all 54 national teams across Leagues A to D — transparently, reproducibly and directly on your iPhone.

WHAT CUP PASS LIVE OFFERS

• Probabilities for every group position • Title and Final Four chances in League A • Promotion, relegation and play-off chances across Leagues B to D • Complete tables for all 14 groups • 1-X-2 forecasts and expected goals for every match • Monte Carlo simulations with 5,000, 12,000 or 50,000 runs • What-if scenarios without changing real results • Manual result entry and optional synchronization of completed matches • German and English interface

A SIMPLE, EXPLAINABLE MODEL

Team strength is based exclusively on a frozen snapshot of FIFA ranking points. Expected goals are derived from those points and simulated using independent Poisson distributions. There is no home advantage, hidden AI model or ongoing change to team strength.

Real results remain fixed while only open matches are simulated. What-if mode lets you try alternative scores and immediately see how the probabilities change.

CUP Pass Live requires no user account. Simulations and manually entered data remain local to the device.

CUP Pass Live is an independent, unofficial probability app. It is not affiliated with UEFA or FIFA and does not use official federation logos.