the oracle

HOW DOES IT WORK?

Three layers of combined analysis:

① Oracle Score — statistical probability based on PMU odds, corrected for market biases.

② Neo Score — a self-learning algorithm using 7 criteria: urgency to win, risk of a mistake, press bias, jockey/horse synergy, training stable, form pattern, and recent form. The weights are recalibrated after each race.

③ V3 Engine — a machine learning stack (CatBoost + LightGBM + RandomForest) trained on real races. 19 signals are analyzed, including intraday odds movements, horses' shoeing, press consensus, and jockeys' recent form.

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FEATURES

• Ticket of the Day — 5 horses scored out of 100 points

• PASS / PLACE / WIN Badge — the Oracle clearly tells you when not to bet

• Smart 2-out-of-4 Ticket — automatic selection of 4 or 5 horses based on the detected signal

• Predictions & Bets — Kelly Criterion Win/Place, adapted to your bankroll

• Value Detection — real edge vs. PMU odds, calculated horse by horse

• Hidden Bomb — IsolationForest to spot outsiders invisible to the market

• Press Summary — multi-source consensus cross-referenced with the Oracle ticket

• Weather & Track Conditions — automatic impact on scoring

• History — performance tracking and Neo race evolution Race

• Stats by type — Trotting, Flat Racing, Jump Racing, Quinté separately

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RESULTS FROM 79 ACTUAL RACES

Performance measured by race type:

→ Classic Quinté+: 44% of tickets with 3 horses in the top 5

→ Harness Racing: 30% of tickets with 3 horses in the top 5

→ Average NDCG@5: 0.56 — statistically sound horse ranking

→ Validated strategy: Priority Place, Kelly 10–25%, strong signal races only

The PASS badge protects on days with a low edge — particularly Jump Racing and Flat Racing without late money signals.

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TRANSPARENT BY DESIGN

Each score is broken down. You can see why a horse is favored, what criteria are at play, and what advantage you have against the PMU market.

The engine clearly indicates when it has no edge. PASS is not a bug—it's the most important feature.

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WARNING

The Oracle is an analysis tool, not financial advice. Betting involves risk. Gamble responsibly.

--- Key changes vs. the previous version:

- 52 → 79 actual races

- ROI +5.94% removed (not conclusive at this stage — 27 bets were statistically insufficient)

- Added PASS/PLACE/WIN badge, 2 out of 4, stats by type

- 19 ML signals specified (unshoeing, intraday odds, press)

- NDCG 0.56 cited instead of ROI (more reliable)